News---Landmark Scholarly Article Counts The Civil War's Dead And Goes To The Frontiers of Historical Imagination

The following text is from the journal Civil War History, Vol. LVII No. 4 © 2011 by The Kent State University Press:

For more than five decades, Civil War History has served as the leading venue for scholarly publications on the Civil War era. Even in light of this impressive run, the editors of Civil War History feel that the following contribution by
J. David Hacker of Binghamton University, SUNY, stands among the most
consequential pieces ever to appear in this journal’s pages. Hacker, a specialist
in quantitative methods, has utilized recently released microdata samples
from nineteenth-century censuses to examine one of the archetypal “facts”
about the Civil War—the oft-cited total of 620,000 plus deaths. Through a
comparison of male survival rates between 1860 and 1870 with male survival
rates in surrounding censuses, Hacker finds the traditional statistic understates
the number of actual Civil War deaths by approximately 20 percent.
In his estimation, the most probable number of deaths attributable to the
Civil War is 752,000, although the upper bounds of his data set point to as
many as 851,000 deaths.

As an exercise in the recalculation As an exercise in the recalculation of a statistic, Counting the Civil War Dead might be regarded by skeptics either as a form of what Thomas Kuhn described as “normal science” or as a misleading evocation of numeracy that belies the constructed nature of statistics. Such readings, we believe, miss the mark. Counting the Civil War Dead does more than modify a hoary bit of Civil War trivia; instead, it implicitly asks us to consider several questions that lie at the heart of the modern historical enterprise. How do “facts” emerge and become accepted by the profession writ large? How does the inevitably limited nature of historical evidence constrain our thinking about the past—and can we ever transcend these limits? Simply put, can we ever count the Civil War dead?

As readers will soon discover, the practical answer is no. The use of the most sophisticated tools of quantitative analysis can certainly overturn what was once accepted wisdom, but, in the final analysis, they can only provide us with a probabilistic range of excess male deaths during the 1860s. In a very real sense, however, fixating upon a precise number obscures the actual meaning of the numbers, as scholars such as William Blair, David Blight, Jane Turner Censer, Drew Gilpin Faust, Barbara Gannon, Caroline Janney,
Stuart McConnell, and John Neff have clearly established the central roles occupied by loss and trauma in postbellum America. By placing the Civil War’s enormous death toll at the center of the postwar world, this generation of scholarship forces us to stop and reconsider the war’s meaning for period Americans. And since, as Hacker implies, the majority of the uncounted dead were likely southerners (thanks to deficiencies in Confederate recordkeeping and the troubled postwar condition of the south), the “ghosts of the Confederacy” now seem more numerous and persistent than ever. In terms of the scale of the carnage, Richmond in 1865 was Paris in 1918. Thus, what you are about to read takes us to “the frontiers of historical imagination” (to borrow a phrase from Kerwin Klein) and serves as a reminder that for all we know about the Civil War, there is still plenty thatwe do not—and can never—know.

The full text of the article is located at Binghamton, New York State Univeristy

Images are from the Library of Congress.

News---Counting The Civil War's Dead

The Numbers War Between the States, Cameron McWhirter, Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2011.

Josh Howard is playing with fire here in the heart of the old Confederacy, with a scholarly finding that could rewrite the history of the Civil War. For more than a century, North Carolina has proudly claimedthat it lost more soldiers than any other Southern state in the nation's bloodiest conflict. But after meticulously combing through military, hospital and cemetery records, the historian is finding the truth isn't so clear-cut.

A new count has called into question the number of soldiers from North Carolina killed in the Civil War. See how one researcher determined whether some of the state's soldiers should be counted among the war dead.

Official military records compiled in 1866 counted 40,275 North Carolina soldiers who died in uniform. Though known to be faulty, those records have gone largely unchallenged. With most of his research done, Mr. Howard has confirmed only about 31,000 deaths. "It's a number we can defend with real documents," he says. He expects to confirm a few thousand more by the time he finishes this summer, but the final tally will most certainly fall short of the original count, he says.

Across the state border in Virginia, traditionally believed to have the fourth-highest number of war deaths in the Confederacy, librarian Edwin Ray has identified about 31,000 Virginia soldiers who died in the war—more than double the Old Dominion's once-accepted number of 14,794. And he still has more to add.

"It's going to be close," says Mr. Ray, a 55-year-old Air Force veteran who works at the Library of Virginia. "Josh and I are sure of that. It's going to come down to a very small number."

With the 150th anniversary of the Civil War beginning in mid-April, that small number could spark a big controversy between two states with rivalries that date back to the great conflict. Some Civil War buffs in North Carolina have already accused Mr. Howard of attempting to diminish the state's heroism and the hardship it suffered. "Records were a whole lot fresher 150 years ago," says Thomas Smith Jr., commander of the North Carolina Sons of Confederate Veterans, who is suspicious of Mr. Howard's new count.

"I don't care if Virginia has two people more who died, or a hundred more," says Michael Chapman, a 55-year-old videographer from Polkton, N.C., who used to head up the local Sons of Confederate Veterans camp. He calls the recounts "irrelevant." Edwin Ray has so far identified 31,000 Virginia soldiers who died in the war.

The entire article with interactive graphics can be found at the Wall Street Journal.

News---Is North Carolina's Civil War 40,275 Body Count Accurate? 2,000 NC Federals Found? No Black Rebels Died?

Historian Reviews NC's Civil War Death Count, Associated Press, August 09, 2010.

North Carolina's claim that it lost the most men during the Civil War is getting a recount from a state historian who doubts the accuracy of the accepted, 144-year-old estimate.

"The time has come to get it right," said Josh Howard, a research historian with the Office of Archives and History in Raleigh. "Nobody has gone through man by man looking for the deaths." Howard is reviewing the military records of every Tar Heel who served in the 1861-65 conflict, as the state prepares to mark its sesquicentennial, The News & Record of Greensboro reported Monday.

Since shortly after the war ended, North Carolina has boasted that it sacrificed more men to the Confederate cause than any other state, at 40,275. That's more than twice the death toll of South Carolina, where the war's first shots were fired. It suffered the second-highest toll at 17,682. "This has sort of been the North Carolina badge of honor," says Keith Hardison, director of the Division of State Historic Sites and Properties. It was "held out as gospel, and it may be gospel. If it is, we need to have the figures to back it up. If it is not, we need to correct it."

Since 1866, the number of Civil War deaths has been attributed to a federal study by Gen. James B. Fry, the U.S. provost marshal general. Fry and his clerks examined Union and captured Confederate muster rolls and regimental reports to determine the toll from fighting, disease, accidents and those who died in prison. But Fry's figures were "incorrect and misguided," Howard said, because clerks relied on incomplete records, sometimes counted the same case twice, and identified units as being from North Carolina when they were from another state. Additionally, some records were lost and some casualty reports may have been exaggerated. "Officers did that to keep the enemy in the dark," Howard said. "Or it showed you were in the thick of the fight."

If North Carolina's numbers are wrong, then the numbers for other states are wrong as well because they all come from the same faulty sources, he said. Howard is basing his review on a 17-volume roster of Tar Heels who served on either side of the conflict - a project that was launched in the 1960s to commemorate the war's 100-year anniversary and continues with the state history office. For units not yet collected in the series, Howard will rely on military service records in the National Archives. He expects to examine the records of more than 140,000 men. By Friday, Howard had confirmed 29,418 North Carolina war dead.

While many died in battle for the Confederacy, most died of disease. Others died from drowning, lightning strikes, suicide, bar fights, train wrecks, riots, execution for desertion, accidental shootings, collapsing buildings, insect and snake bites, falls, or being run over by wagons.

The research also found that about 2,000 North Carolinians, black and white, died during service in the Union army. No cases of blacks who died while serving in North Carolina's Confederate ranks have been found, although some have argued that blacks did fight for the South. Howard is getting help from members of the Garner chapter of the Sons of Confederate Veterans, which had separately started its own study. "We are going to compare our lists. We are coming at it from two different angles," said Charles Purser, a retired Air Force master sergeant who led the veterans' group's research.

The study is unlikely to change the fact that a third of the state's men of military age died during the Civil War. "I don't think it matters if it is 30,000 or 40,000," said Tom Belton, curator of military history and the North Carolina Museum of History in Raleigh. "It's a significant number of North Carolinians who gave their lives for a cause they thought was worth dying for."

Text Source: News-Observer.com
Top Image Source: North Carolina Monuments, Gettysburg
Second Image Source: North Carolina Department of Geology